Jason Hartman starts the show by sharing some wisdom on success. He looks at commodities investing and has an optimistic view. There’s a lot happening with new construction. The recent boom in construction is pushing prices of materials up. In the second half of the show Jason brings on Josh Simon. They look at the different types of commercial real estate and how they were affected by the pandemic. Mainstream media continues to the term commercial real estate for a broad range of real estate, never really distinguishing between the different types.
Announcer 0:02
Welcome to the creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You’re about to learn a new slant on investing some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world’s most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine self made multi millionaire who’s actually been there and done it. He’s a successful investor, lender, developer and entrepreneur who’s owned properties in 11 states had hundreds of tenants and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason’s footsteps on the road to your financial independence day. You really can do it on now. here’s your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors.
Jason Hartman 0:54
Welcome to Episode 1505 1505 And thank you for joining us today. So we are going to talk about making distinctions, understanding nuances, this is the key between those who are successful at anything, and those who are unsuccessful, and you obviously want to be in the successful camp, and we will help you be there. So successful people pay attention to the details, the distinctions, and they look at things with a deeper understanding than people who paint a broad brush, say things like, well, the market is good or the market is bad. And nobody really knows what that means. And so as we talk with my friend, Josh Simon today about commercial real estate, and I think you’ll find this to be rather amazing because most people would say, the commercial real estate market is awful. It’s so bad, especially the retail market and the hospitality market. Other parts of the commercial market, but what you’re going to find is that interestingly, in suburban markets, the commercial real estate market is faring much better than many might think. So it again requires a lot of distinction. And if you care nothing about commercial real estate, and you care only about housing and only about residential real estate, that’s fine. But this is important because you’re going to understand more about the broader economy, and most importantly, about distinctions that other people fail to make. My friend Josh Simon is very successful. He’s been on the show before many years ago. And so we’re going to have him back today to talk a little bit about commercial real estate during the pandemic. But first, I want to go over a couple of charts with you that I just found to be amazing, amazing. Maybe I’ll share these at our upcoming meet the Masters conference, and by the way, Thanks to all of you who have been buying tickets like they are going out of style. When I was a kid, my mom used to say, Jason, you spend money like it’s going out of style. My mom being a conservative, not depression era. But you know, her parents were definitely depression era, my grandparents had that depression era mindset of you know, you got to save money. And the funny thing is, as a young kid, I guess I intuitively knew that money actually was going out of style. My mom was accusing me of spending money like it’s going out of style. And then I realized as I got older and understood inflation, that money actually was going out of style. And what I mean by that is the value of it has been inflated away, hasn’t it? you all understand what I’m talking about all of you regular listeners. You get it, you understand? So anyway, as we look at these charts, this is fascinating stuff, folks. fascinating stuff going on. In the economic data out there. So first of all, you know, I talk about packaged commodities investing my trademark system, the Hartman, risk evaluator for understanding what really makes the value of a property and what causes a property to gain lose or maintain its value. And I talked to you about the ingredients of a house, the ingredients of an apartment building. Well, what are they made out of? Right? They’re made out of lumber, concrete, glass, steel, copper, wire, petroleum products, labor, energy, those are the basic ingredients of a house. And guess what? those ingredients are getting really expensive. Now, isn’t this all counterintuitive? Because if you follow my YouTube channel, and I gotta tell you, I really wish I had done more on YouTube sooner. One of the things I love about It is I get to read all of your comments. And I get to read some comments from people who clearly do not listen to the podcast. Because if they listened to the podcast, I know, they would be a lot smarter. And you can tell by their comments how dumb they are.
Jason Hartman 5:19
But hey, I appreciate any comments, because it’s good for the algorithm. Isn’t that weird? that we live in a dystopian world where we play to algorithms? Yes. Algorithms from God, the God of Google. Ah, that’s a shameful God. But it is God nonetheless. Anyway. So the God of Google rules our life and comments good and bad, the algorithm doesn’t care just makes the video more popular. People say a bunch of stupid stuff. So okay, Hey, thank you for the stupid comments. Some I know none of you listening or making stupid comments, but to the out there who don’t listen to the podcast and make really dumb comments. I appreciate it.
Jason Hartman 6:06
But, you know, it really goes to show you how the general public is just so uninformed about the way things work and in real estate in the economy, because, you know, a couple of months ago, we could have all thought this was going the other way, for sure. And it turned out to be completely the opposite. Now, granted, it’s not over, you know, like the saying goes, it’s not over till the fat lady sings. Right. And she has not done her number yet. And we’re gonna see a lot more. This is definitely maybe the third inning of this whole thing, and we’ve got a long way to go. So we’ll see how it all works out. But right now, I can definitely tell you that people who invest in the futures market that are risk takers looking toward the future, are saying that many things are pretty rosy. They’re pretty rosy. And one of them is commodities. So I am looking at a chart, a commodities chart from the Wall Street Journal, and this is steel and iron ore futures. So what do you think is going to happen to the price of steel and iron ore? Well, apparently the investors are very bullish, they are rallying in the futures market. So here is the price of rebar. So what do they think is happening? Well, they think the future is going to be pretty bright and that this stuff is going to get a lot more expensive. So the worst points were right at the end of January, early February, just for reference, this number was 3200. And I frankly don’t know what that is. I don’t know if it’s per ton per metric ton. Frankly, I don’t know. bushel, I’m not sure. But it doesn’t matter because the only question When you analyze anything is really compared to what? Compared to what? So comparing the price to itself is what we want to know, compared to what this, ladies and gentlemen, is why I like looking at charts, because charts always tell me compared to what they answer the fundamental Jason Hartman question compared to what question mark. So, January, a low point got even worse in the middle of March while end of March early April got even worse, down below 3200. And it’s been up up up up had a little down trough here of 3300 rows as high as 3400. And then it went down. That was at that was about middle of May, and overall it’s been an upward, upward, upward trend. factory. Now the price is 3747. So, investors think that there is going to be a lot of demand for rebar. What is rebar used for construction? dear Watson, does that have the same goes dear Watson? I don’t know. Anyway, whatever. So bullish bullish bullish The same is true of copper and the same is true with lumber prices lumber prices are way up. And there’s a little statement here a little caption under this graph. It says prices for forest products like lumber and plywood have soared because of the booming demand from home builders making up for lost time. a do it yourself explosion sparked by stay at home orders and the race among restaurants and bars to install outdoors seating areas. Did I not tell you that there would be a DIY explosion? I did tell you that. I told you home improvement was going to be a big deal. Did I not tell you there was going to be a building explosion in suburban markets? Yes, I did. Was I write? Yes, Jason, you are absolutely right. You predicted that before anybody else in the news media did. Everybody else was talking about it two months later than you, pat on the back time. Okay. So there’s a couple of charts for you that are interesting, because the ingredients, the commodities that are included in your properties have gone up. Now, one more thing we got to get to our guests. But I’ve talked to you about supply demand shock. We’ve talked about that quite a bit. Now, let’s look at one more chart and this one should really blow your mind. This is the industrial production. You’re over here. of Mexico, our neighbor to the south Mexico’s industrial production.
Jason Hartman 11:06
It has cratered. You would think this is Wu Han. I’m looking at right during the main part of a lockdown when they were putting razor barbed wire around apartment complexes so people couldn’t get out. Welcome to China. So Mexico’s industrial production, this chart, if you could see it, it’s like it dropped off the earth. It’s like they said to Columbus, there there be dragons. At the end of the map, you will fall off the end edge of the ocean and fall into deep space. That’s what this chart looks like. And industrial production in Mexico didn’t decline a lot. But guess when the last time that happened? That was 2008 2009 and it didn’t decline anywhere near as much as it is down now. So Mexico is on siesta, because this is like, wow. And I’ll tell you, if you just go look, go look on Amazon and shop for stuff. I mean, listen, I told you, I’m a consumer. My mom always gave me a hard time when I was growing up Jason you spend money like it’s going out of style. Ask her herself. She used to say that to me all the time. Not really good for my prosperity consciousness probably. But whatever, you know, our parents screw us up, don’t think, okay, my mom’s probably listening. I’m gonna get a phone call after this. Anyway, if you go shop online, you can see that the price of things of a lot of things is a lot higher. I’m going to give you an example about a table that I bought two years ago a little table I wanted to buy another one because I liked the table prices dramatically higher now. So it’s a weird time, folks. Okay, without further ado, let’s talk about commercial real estate. But before we do that, you need to go to Jason Hartman comm slash masters chasing army Calm slash masters and get your tickets for meet the masters of income property with. Well, I didn’t do my other speaker announcement that I can McElroy Rich Dad author Ken McElroy is back with us. This is now the third time he’s spoken at one of our events. And of course, Sharon lechter of rich dad fame as well as speaking, we’ve got Harry dent economist Harry dent and George gammon, who was just here in Florida and I had brunch with him on Saturday morning, so it’s always great to see George. So we got an all star lineup and we are doing the schedule and the agenda. Wow, it’s jam packed. You’re gonna learn all sorts of great stuff at meet the Masters virtual online conference, Jason hartman.com slash masters. Here’s our guest, Josh Simon. Hey, everybody, it’s my pleasure to welcome a good friend of mine, Josh Simon. He is a commercial real estate brokerage owner and developer and just stay tremendous success story. I met him several years ago when I lived in Arizona. And he has just done amazing, amazing things. And I asked him to come on with us today and give us an update on the commercial real estate market. And understand, of course, when people talk about commercial real estate, what are they talking about? You know, that’s, are they talking about retail, office, industrial, you know, self storage, what type of properties are they talking about apartment complexes, you know, so commercial real estate is a bit of a misnomer. And then there are many types within that. So we hope to clear up some misconceptions about commercial real estate and about what you’re hearing on the news today, and just talk about what the path forward is for some possible reuses of various commercial properties. So we’ll go into that. Just want to say that this is a general discussion of some rather complex topics. So of course, if anything is discussed that might require tax or legal advice or other professional advice Get that from the appropriate professional. Nothing is meant to be specific for your situation specifically, Also be sure to check out our privacy policy and Terms of Service at Jason hartman.com. And now, let’s bring Josh on. Josh, are you there?
Josh Simon 15:17
Yes, I’m here.
Jason Hartman 15:18
How you doing? Hey, welcome. Good. It’s good to have you on. Thank you so much for joining us today. You’re probably sitting in an empty office, I’m guessing. Yes, partially empty, but we’re getting we’re in Arizona. So we’re slowly opening back up could be here. Well, hey, what’s going on in the commercial real estate market just kind of broadly, we’re all hearing tales of distress and disaster. You know, give us a little background and, and tell us who you are and what you do. So people understand better.
Josh Simon 15:49
Yeah, thanks. And thanks for having me. So we’re i a commercial real estate development company based here in Scottsdale. As you can see from the slide, we’ve developed 184 projects in total To states we’ve done this mostly single tenant net lease retail. So thing Starbucks Dollar General Dollar General Tractor Supply, or Riley, Verizon, as well as small multi tenant retail buildings, you know, that might have a nail salon, a haircut place as well as some medical office buildings in the past and then also redeveloping former grocery stores, old Walmart. So we’ve kind of run the spectrum on the retail side. And so we like to consider ourselves a pretty good expert in the retail space. You know, I think one big thing you know, the news paints is this major disaster in retail. And, you know, I think you kind of have to break that up into a couple categories here you have, I think, the most pain being felt in the mall space. And what this is, you know, with JC Penney filing for bankruptcy and some of these Nordstrom closing, you know, 16 full line department stores, this is gonna force a mall shakeout that was going to be happening nonetheless, over the next three to five years. It’s gonna speed that up. The next level you have is what we call power centers. So think of power centers as multiple box users. So a target and a Ross and an Office Max and a TJ Maxx and, you know, a shoe store, those centers have been hurt pretty badly, too, because they were not considered mostly essential retail. And so I think that’s going to continue to have a lot of pain, where there’s a ton of opportunity. And I would say some of the brighter spots in retail have been the single tenant net lease side of the business, depending on the type of tenant grocery anchored, which obviously grocery stores considered an essential service. And so those shopping centers, and some of the tenants have remained open through this period.
Jason Hartman 17:44
Yeah, absolutely. So for an investor, the triple net lease type properties are those the safer bet in the retail space now.
Josh Simon 17:54
Yeah, and you’ve seen demand go up and I think what you know on the single tenant you won’t type of 10 minutes. And before you know towards the end of for the last few years right before COVID it was experimental is what everyone wanted and now it’s essential and essential is you know O’Reilly auto parts for example and your other auto parts stores were considered essential because you got to keep the wheels turning your auto repair your dollar stores because they sell essential services and obviously grocery stores and so you we’ve seen demand pick up for essential type retail.
Jason Hartman 18:31
Absolutely that’s that’s really interesting and people have been stocking up. You know, one part of that equation does surprise me a little bit. Has Amazon and the other internet e tailers. have not been able to capture much of the auto parts market. I see online. I see them trying, but auto parts stores. People aren’t just buying all that stuff online. I know some of it’s a little large for shipping and so forth. tires, obviously, you know, mufflers, I guess but maybe addressed just the auto parts, parts specifically.
Josh Simon 19:03
Yeah, and so interesting thing about a lot of the auto parts like Riley and you know their competitors for example, they do have a lot of consumer b2c, but actually they have a huge b2b business. And so what they act as is like a kind of a supply mechanism for the repair shops down the street in their areas, and the Do It Yourself component of fixing a car. I don’t know about you, I’m not very mechanic friendly, I could probably get my windshield wipers and some basic stuff. But if you get any more complicated, it’s very hard to go online and figure out what part you need. And if you need your car fixed you need to fix right away and so these auto parts stores act as suppliers to these repair shops that are right by them
Jason Hartman 19:47
got it. So they’re really distributors. They’re really like Amazon warehouses. Yeah, a large extent they can be and they’ve competed and Amazon hasn’t been able to compete with them so far in that in that domain. Okay, very interesting. Very interesting. Okay, good. So experiential versus essential. That’s a great way to put it. And I remember when I think it was one of the first major experiential shopping, not malls, was not indoors, I guess. But outdoor centers that opened. And I lived in Orange County at the time when Irvine spectrum opened. And that was a big deal. I mean, everybody around the country was talking about that center. And of course, it had retail, but it also had a lot of entertainment component to it. So talk to us about the experiential thing, just help us better understand or define that. And like you said, that’s what every developer wanted, every investor wanted. But now it’s completely shifted because the experiential has shut down, right? And now they want essential. So tell us about this dichotomy, if you would.
Josh Simon 20:59
Yeah. And so experiential you can think of the whole shopping center. But I also think of it as, hey, what’s something that you can easily replace online. So experiential could be going to a basketball game. It could be going to the gym going to a f 45, or an orange theory class orange theory class, because that’s experiential. And so what happened is everyone desired to have these tenants in their shopping center. And obviously, those were the first tenants forced to close you look at movie theaters, that’s an experiential tenant. And who knows, like what is the short term future of theaters, what kind of changes will go on but I also think it’s an exciting time to be in retail because I think there’s gonna be a lot of good concepts that are made stronger through this process. And I also think it just it’s, it reinforces the idea of having a balanced portfolio investments, you know, I think for us, like I, you know, key is is Hey, do we have a drive thru are multi tenant buildings? Are they close to the street where Hey, you know, we’re not forced to have to drive traffic back to the theater and we can’t be seen from the street. So if you’re up on the street people are still driving by. And even if that theater was closed, you still you know, are able to get traffic passing your storefront. Very interesting, you know, one of the weirdest stores that opened I remember in the Irvine spectrum years ago, and I got to tell you this one, because this doesn’t strike me as experiential very much. But it was back when and you know, I guess for some reason this faded out when everybody there were all these commercials on the radio for CT scans, okay of your body. And I remember in Irvine spectrum, this beautiful sort of high end, CT scanning place opened, and it was almost It was like a spa.
Jason Hartman 22:51
And I thought, Oh, let me think to someone go out to dinner. And hey, you know, let’s go get a CT scan before dinner.
Josh Simon 23:01
Just start off and after dinner, right, you get one or
Jason Hartman 23:04
Yeah, before and after church, or that just struck me as a very unusual thing. But you know, they have the entertainment for the kids, they’ll have a merry go around, they’ll have a ferris wheel, like some interesting experiencial stuff in there. And that’s just interesting. So talk to us about online sales, if you would.
Josh Simon 23:23
Yeah. And so what we’ve seen in talking to our tenants and just, you know, being so active in the market is, the online trend has definitely grown. And so we’ve seen people that have never done clicking collect online grocery ordering, they they’ve done it for the first time, and that number is going to speed up. But we’ve also seen how important brick and mortar is. People still want to go to the grocery store and you’ve seen the pickup of tenants that were deemed essential, you know that that has continued to grow. And I think one long term trend that comes out of this is if you think of a grocery store, and what you The Center’s store your paper towels, your cleaning supplies. I think that becomes even smaller in the future because I think those items are commodity you can order those online you can get those from Amazon pantry or from you know, whoever your grocery grocery store provider is online. And so I think over time the grocery store is going to get smaller because of that center store isn’t needed as much
Jason Hartman 24:25
center store. What do you mean when you say that?
Josh Simon 24:28
So if you picture when you go into a grocery store, what’s on the right produce? On the left is your meats, you maybe your wine, your your dairy? And so what do you have in the middle, it’s all the goods that are your paper towels, your toilet paper, your cleaning supplies, your dog food, the center store is not a very profitable place in the growth and that’s why you’ve seen sprouts and Trader Joe’s they’ve done so well because they’re not really that center store. They have a very, they’re very focused. They have you know, that niche that They appeal to they’re really focusing on food items more than supply items right so you think of sprouts sprouts you know by you they’re really good with produce fresh produce for their vitamins. Trader Joe’s is not known for their dairy but they’re known for some of their kind of special you know packaged goods right that you can only get there and so what you find is people make multiple trips to different grocery stores to fulfill their needs. I know my fiance she goes to Safeway Trader Joe’s and sprouts all in one
Jason Hartman 25:34
quick trip then kind of does the mall and gets the different stuff. That’s great. Okay, good stuff. So the the center store is going more online, and the perimeter is more in needing the bricks and mortar right. Is that the point?
Josh Simon 25:51
Exactly. I mean, I don’t know a lot of people ordering their steaks their produce, they want to see it. They want to touch it. They want to walk around the store.
Jason Hartman 25:59
Yeah. I agree. And you know, it’s funny because I buy almost everything online. But the one thing I still do and people ask me, I still go to the grocery store, I prefer to go and, and get my food on. I’m mostly a shopper of the perimeter because that’s where the healthier stuff is, you know, they say, if you want to be healthy, don’t shop in the center of the store, you know, because that’s the preservatives, right? The fresh stuff on the outside. So good stuff. Okay, so drive thru and to go in this this is it’s amazing, Josh, how well capitalism works, and how quickly so many businesses adapted to the change. And they were, you know, restaurants and all kinds of services that became curbside or delivery.
Josh Simon 26:45
Yeah, and I see this trend continuing. You know, it obviously forced unfortunately, it’s going to hurt smaller business more proportionally, that doesn’t have a online presence or ordering capabilities, but I think it will force everyone to To really clean up their act and get it, you know, get that going much faster than they obviously anticipated. The other thing that’s been interesting is how fast and I give a lot of credit to a lot of states and their governments because they have adapted quickly to allow like cocktails to go, for example, who would have thought you could walk in and buy a greyhound to go? I didn’t know you could do that, by the way. I go visit my restaurant here. Yeah. And even in California, we were in Newport this past weekend, and you were able to get to go Margarita is at a bar and take them home.
Jason Hartman 27:33
So I think just out of curiosity, were those sealed in some way? Yeah, they have, they put a piece of tape over the straw. You put the straw in so that way it’s you know, sealed. But I think that’s a trend that you know, could that might stay in some capacity post cobit. And so I think having to go and drive especially to drive through lane. I think we’ll see the evolution of like a pickup lane. I think we Hopefully happens with municipalities is, hey, they’re more open to the importance of drive throughs and creating pickup lanes. And hey, when you have for example, Panera has an app that, you know, you can turn on your like location beacon. And when you get into the parking lot, it notifies the staff in the store that, hey, you’re here for your food, and they’ll bring it out to your car. And so I think all these things are going to continue to just speed up the progression that was already going to happen. And you know, there are a lot of really good things coming out of this difficult time. A lot of efficiencies that we might not have seen for five or 10 years are being adopted quickly and it’s great. I mean, it’s really a great thing, just efficiencies everywhere with online meetings, etc. And all of the things you just mentioned, those will stick with us. telemedicine, you know, my veterinarian, and my doctor. Both have sent me things saying download this telemental Snap, it’s like I’ve been requesting that for years and they said, No, we don’t do telemedicine. Well, now they do finally. So these efficiencies, increase the profits of those businesses. And they’re greater efficiencies for the consumer. So the consumer can spend more time living their life or working and being productive one or the other. And so these things are really quite good for the economy. It’s creative destruction, and it’s just happening a lot faster than it did before. So there’s some good stuff here. Okay. rent collection. Josh, we’ve been reading and hearing a lot about this on the news in the newspapers, lots of articles saying rent strikes now on the residential side, which is, which is my domain and yours is in the commercial side. I got to say the news media has totally overplayed this, at least with our investors, my own portfolio, everybody’s paying rent, or clients pretty much Everybody, we don’t have a actual statistical survey on this. But the anecdotally, the rent collection has been quite good. You never collect 100% of your rent. That’s the first thing people need to understand. When they look at these stats. There’s no month where any big landlord ever gets 100% rent, okay? There’s always a collection problem or two in the portfolio. These stats, how are they looking in commercial real estate?
Josh Simon 30:27
Yeah, so this is our stat. And then keep in mind these are from these are tree deferral deals made so that 85 is probably more like a 90 92% from April and that 90 is probably 95%. Now, and what I mean by deferral is, hey, we worked out, you know, some deferred rents for 90 days while the tenant wasn’t able to open and so we found that just communication is just so important. And the landlord tenant relationship is really important, I think, depending on you know, where we go Go back to the beginning of our conversation, what type of asset? Did you own malls? I mean, their collections super low right? power centers, you know, probably I’ve heard between 20 and 40%, and then grocery anchored 60 to 80. And then you get to some more these just mostly essential portfolio and where we are, and you’re up in the 80s and 90s. And so we feel really lucky, you know, at what we’ve always kind of picked, as, you know, our investment thesis. And so, I think that continues to improve, to improve for everybody going forward. The biggest challenge is going to be is Where do you live? And so we’re back to normal here. We have people coming into our office now. And obviously with social distancing, but Arizona you can go to the gym, you can have we had dinner out last night, you could pretty much do anything with social distancing right now. Whereas, you know, when we were in a you in Newport Beach, they were just slowly starting to open up and most of California still work. Main shot or the majority of the populous counties, you know, people were in masks there. Um, you know, at the airport people were wearing masks in the grocery stores, you know, outside on the street. No, but you know, I was on a flight, commercial flight, and it was probably 80% fall and everyone had masks on. So I think people taking it really seriously and obviously the media is gonna hype up certain examples like when they send a picture from the Ozarks of everyone partying, there’s always going to be that example. But I feel even with the opening these, the restaurant tours and the gym owners here are taking it very seriously. Okay, that’s good. That’s good. So triple net and the sales of those properties. Yes, I think an interesting thing has been is they’ve delayed the 1031 day depending on you know, when you fell into your identification period to July, what we’ve seen is there’s been a flight to certain types of assets drive throughs essential you know, Dollar General O’Reilly different types of auto dollar stores. And so we’ve seen that there’s been a lot of demand, pricing hasn’t changed, but it’s remained stable. And so I think product for good quality tenants that have a drive thru that are essential will remain stable and you know, more investors will continue to continue to desire them. You know, an interesting thing we’ll see what happens as the year develops is if, you know, multifamily rents have kind of flatlined for the time being, you do have a decrease in 1031 transactions, which means there’s a decrease in buyers down the road for these types of properties. You know, but the, you know, the counter argument to that is, is not a lot of people are starting construction on new things right now, just given the environment, it’s harder to get financing. You know, we’ve been fortunate, you know, just because of our tenant lineup. We have seven closings this week, three new projects that you know, to our ground up ones are a remodel of an existing building and then we’re selling a handful of assets as well.
Jason Hartman 33:58
This will be continuing On the next episode, thank you for listening and happy investing.
Jason Hartman 34:09
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